by Brad Ferguson
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Ocean rates will be shaped by multiple uncertainties, notably the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) negotiations for U.S. East and Gulf ports. Although wage terms have been agreed, they have not been accepted, preserving the potential for strikes—possibly even before the January contract expiration.
This has prompted congestion and strategic routing shifts to West Coast ports. Additional pressures stem from the Red Sea crisis and possible U.S. trade policy changes, including proposed 20% tariffs on all imports and 100% on Chinese goods. Despite these risks, global ocean freight rates remain about 140% above 2019 levels.
For air freight, U.S. de minimis rules allowing tax-free imports under $800 continue to support strong volumes for platforms like Temu and Shein. Growth remains strong in other markets, and some carriers, including Air China, have announced rate increases.
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