by Jessica Ingram
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North American intermodal rail enters 2026 focused on network optimization rather than a demand-led rebound. Competitive dynamics tied to the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger have pushed Class I railroads to expand intermodal lanes and improve service reliability, supporting gradual volume growth despite continued softness in the broader freight market.
Recent gains in intermodal volumes have been driven primarily by these service enhancements. With truckload capacity remaining abundant, pricing leverage largely favors shippers, keeping intermodal contract rates relatively stable. As carriers adjust routing strategies and pricing to defend market share, freight flows are likely to shift among providers without materially expanding overall demand.
Looking ahead, stronger and more sustained intermodal growth will depend on tighter truckload conditions and a recovery in key freight-generating sectors such as manufacturing and housing. Until then, the industry’s outlook remains cautious as stakeholders await regulatory clarity on the proposed UP–NS merger and its long-term implications.

Source: Ari Ashe, “Domestic intermodal to benefit from new lanes, faster service in 2026,” Journal of Commerce, Dec. 29, 2025.
https://www.joc.com/article/domestic-intermodal-to-benefit-from-new-lanes-faster-service-in-2026-6142289
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