· Many of us have asked for a return to a more normal way of life since the pandemic start of 2020, and although most of us intended this request to be meet on a personal side of life there have also been those hoping this would also impact business. With this hope of a desired return to the more familiar there may be some stumbling blocks to be aware of in 2022 for the ocean shipping sector. Here are some things to look out for as we strive to regain normalcy.
· If COVID numbers drop throughout the world as hoped operations would be able to reach the standard again and this will undoubtedly impact spot rates. The most common concern is this may in fact send these spot rates to dangerous lows creating instability in markets as a result and possibly being lower than contracted rates. Some recent pop ups of small ships brought in with high charter rates will likely close. Congestion would decrease and transit times would shorten. Although most of these are positive potentials for the 2022 outlook there are still some concerns to watch for.
· A shortening of the transportation chain would create a critical number of empty containers dwelling as there has been increased production of new containers to the increased volume seen over the last two years. Stabilization would mean there are just too many containers with no ability to be moved. Another possible problem ahead could be a shut down for a major port to prevent the stabilizing of the industry. For instance, if a major shut down were to occur at Yantian or Ningbo as in 2021 the results could be devastating. There has also been a new speculative security concern that ports may be vulnerable to cyber-attacks and this havoc would not only directly affect any port if attached but would have worldwide impact. With the positive and negative prospects for 2022 market watchers are in high gear speculating as the first quarter continues.
Friday February, 4, 2022
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