Tariff impacts begin to show

The tariff burden on China trade lanes is now registering in ABI filings, with frontloading activity that drove an early peak season concluded and US retailers pulling back new POs.

Importers face dual pressure: higher duty outlays and slowing consumer demand, while demurrage and storage bills climb as containers sit idle at marine terminals. Forwarders confirm uncertainty over future tariff levels has stalled ordering cycles, particularly among SME importers. Bookings from China remain above April lows, when tariffs spiked temporarily to 145%, but current volumes reflect only residual frontloading ahead of August deadlines. Laden liftings from Asia surged to a six-month high in July, yet GPT forecasts show imports down ≥20% YoY for Sept–Dec. Elevated comps from 2024 labor strike fears cannot fully explain the malaise; small importers in particular struggle to absorb costs and push increases downstream.

Price transmission is evident. NFIB indices show small-business price hikes at post-March highs, with Census surveys reporting 34% of firms planning increases vs. 29% two weeks earlier. Even Home Depot, the No. 2 US importer by volume, acknowledged modest increases despite prior pledges. Forwarders serving big-box and e-commerce BCOs report August seasonality erased; tariff volatility overrides normal inbound cycles. Executives concede “rough months ahead.”

Container abandonment is rising where tariff plus demurrage > resale value. Bonded storage no longer shields importers, who face mounting warehouse bills. Some buyers are shifting to origin-controlled terms, shifting cost/risk onto sellers. Demurrage averages confirm the trend: GoComet data shows dwell up to 8.1 days in July vs. 3.8 in January. BCOs attribute part of the spike to vessel schedule reliability, but the primary driver is tariff uncertainty. ABI dispositions note cargo reroutes, holds, and premature cancellations mid-voyage, all of which inflate dwell penalties.

Underlying all is instability in the tariff framework itself. Importers lack confidence that the provisional 55% US-China tariff will remain fixed after the truce deadline of Nov. 10. Forwarders describe piecemeal replenishment strategies, emergency pivots to small-parcel channels, and in some cases suspension of ocean freight altogether. The ABI message is consistent: tariff shocks are live, disposition remains unsettled, and normalization of trans-Pacific trade flows is deferred.

Site Source: JOC, Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor | Aug 19, 2025, 4:06 PM EDT