by Brad Ferguson
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July 2025 PIERS data indicates total inbound containerized volumes reached 2.609M TEUs, the highest single-month total on record. Month-over-month volumes increased 17.5% from June 2025, with most US ports reporting double-digit growth.
Primary driver identified as tariff-driven frontloading in response to recent Trump Administration trade measures, including implementation of broad tariff schedules and subsequent 90-day reprieves. While China remains the top origin, elevated volumes were also noted from Southern Europe and Southeast Asia tariff-impacted countries.
Historical trend:
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May 2025: -5% YoY volume decline following announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
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June 2025: -3% YoY decline as shippers resumed bookings during tariff pauses.
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July 2025: Sharp rebound to all-time high on accelerated bookings ahead of tariff actions.
Year-to-date through July: +5.4% vs prior year.
NRF forecast (Aug–Dec 2025): -5.6% total import decline due to tariff impact on inflation, consumer demand, and macroeconomic conditions.
Impact to ABI Filers:
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Expect continued volatility in shipment volumes and entry filings (ACE/ABI) through Q4 2025.
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Monitor PGA and tariff program updates for applicable HTS adjustments.
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Consider pre-arrival filing strategies to mitigate congestion delays during potential future frontloading cycles.
China:
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Inbound containerized volumes rebounded after two consecutive months of 20%+ declines.
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July total: 1.228M TEUs (+36% MoM from June).
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Still -8% YoY, consistent with ongoing US sourcing diversification away from China despite temporary tariff reprieves.
Southeast Asia:
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Key origins (Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia) benefited from tariff reprieve.
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July total: 581,803 TEUs (+24% YoY), setting a new record for any month.
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Previous record: 542,414 TEUs (June 2025).
Indian Subcontinent:
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July volumes reached 152,630 TEUs, up 21% YoY.
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Marks an all-time monthly high for the region.
ABI/ACE Filing Note:
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Expect elevated volume from SEA and Indian subcontinent HTS origins subject to recent tariff suspensions.
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Monitor PGA requirements for new suppliers in these lanes.
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Adjust cargo release and summary filing workflows to account for possible HTS origin shifts impacting tariff program applicability.
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