US Imports Forecast to Slide Sharply in Late 2025 as Tariff Frontloading Distorts Cargo Flow

US containerized imports are projected to show significant year-over-year declines across the final four months of 2025, according to the latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates. The updated forecast reflects the lingering effects of heavy frontloading in late 2024, when shippers accelerated volumes amid longshore labor concerns, combined with this year’s early peak season tied to tariff implementation deadlines.

The GPT adjusted its projections for September through November only marginally from July levels, yet the year-over-year reductions remain severe. September imports are now forecast at 1.83 million TEUs, down 19.4 percent from 2.27 million TEUs in 2024. October is set at 1.82 million TEUs, a decline of 18.7 percent, while November’s 1.71 million TEUs represent a 20.8 percent drop, marking the lowest monthly total since April 2023. December is expected to close at 1.72 million TEUs, down 19.2 percent compared with the same period last year.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett underscored that tariff policy has been a central driver of these distortions, with importers “second-guessing tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect.” That strategy, he warned, would lead to a pronounced downturn beginning in late September, as inventories destined for the holiday season will already be in place.

While full-year import volumes are still projected at 24.1 million TEUs, that figure represents a 5.6 percent decline from the 25.5 million TEUs recorded in 2024. The trajectory is already visible in recent data: August expectations were raised to 2.2 million TEUs, a 5.8 percent increase from the prior month’s projection, yet June’s actual 1.96 million TEUs came in nearly 5 percent below earlier estimates. Imports for the first half of 2025 reached 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.6 percent year-over-year, a gain widely attributed to tariff-linked frontloading.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the forecast illustrates how trade policy is reshaping the supply chain. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves,” he said.

The GPT, published monthly with data from 13 major U.S. ports across the East, West, and Gulf coasts, continues to emphasize the systemic nature of these trade flow shifts. For brokers, carriers, and shippers alike, the message is clear: tariff-driven entry compression has front-loaded demand, leaving the final quarter of 2025 set for some of the weakest comparative volumes in years.

Site Source: JOC Laura Robb, Associate Editor | Aug 8, 2025, 4:14 PM EDT